First of all, thank you for taking interest in KARMA!

Many hours were spent building up an idea from a very basic premise: that there must exist a simple yet sophisticated solution to profitably exploit an inefficiency in the sports betting industry. It seemed unlikely that this industry, still largely treated as a western frontier with a truly free market, would be able to consistently set lines in an efficient manner. Surely humans are not this efficient!

So what are our basic assumptions about the sports betting markets? Well, let's dive in.

• First, when we refer to 'units', we assume the standard odds of -110 (lay 11 to win 10) for spreads and totals. For moneyline and EPL wagers, we are assuming a bet of 1 unit (as opposed to 1.1 units for spreads and totals). For example, a bet with odds +180 translates to risking 1 unit to win 1.8 units.


• Next, we use closing lines when providing our historical results. We consider covers.com to be the source of truth on historical closing lines. We understand other outlets will produce different closing lines and thus different results.


• An important (albeit slightly ironic) piece of advice is to expect future results to vary from prior results. While the past can help us predict the future, it is certainly not perfect. This could mean future results are better or worse, though it is more likely that the optimal historical inputs will not achieve the same level of results in the future due to Regression to the Mean.


• With regards to betting strategy, we recommend a simple and sustainable approach. This means determining a bankroll, sticking to it, and betting the same amount on each game within a season. Mixing bet sizes can lead to chasing losses and allowing human emotions to worsen results.

We hope the information above provides useful context when digesting all of the information we provide.

Anytime a kick returner catches the ball in the endzone, it feels like a special teams coach should be out of a job before the end of the day. Between penalties, injuries, fumbles, and empirical evidence of average endzone returns (Football Outsiders summarizes this evidence well), the glimmer of hope for a big return is overwhelmed by a sea of bad possibilities.

Of course, the NFL has actively sought to deflate the excitement and utility of the play through multiple rule changes in the past few years. But why drag along the carcass of a once thrilling play? It emerges as another one of the NFL's astoundingly bad decisions under the leadership of Roger Goodell.

So why do we keep the play at all? The only sensible reasons to return a kickoff are due to a short kick or to attempt a change of momentum as a trailing team (see: the Chiefs against the Texans in the 2020 AFC Divisional Round). Any alternative should provide an upgrade for fans, even if it cuts into potential commercial revenue to simplify the change of possession.

The bar opens at 7 am. After gasping at the wall of TV screens, the out-of-towners are trying to determine their bets before the unusually early 10 am kickoffs. The ticket booths are stacked with the usual suspects on both sides of the counter, from ticket writers to locals to first-timers. You pass by seemingly every NFL team's jersey while watching the big board for any last minute line movements. NFL Sundays at Westgate Superbook provide a thrilling, unique experience for any first-timer.

The larger-than-life TVs are each closely monitored by fans and bettors alike, meaning large eruptions immediately precede the rest of the crowd scanning the other TVs to see the big play. It's NFL Redzone on steroids, played out in the presence of many people with an uncomfortable amount of money on the bounce of a mishapen ball.

While the stories about 'Old Vegas' are timeless, the 'New Vegas' atmosphere provides its own unique thrill for the casual fan all the way up to big-time sports gamblers. Other sportsbooks in Vegas have fine establishments, but there doesn't seem to be an arena filled with a better combination of rooting interests, personalities, and money flowing.

This is an unpaid ad for the aptly named Superbook. If you are planning a gambling trip to Vegas and plan to bet on NFL (or any sport), Westgate Superbook is our recommendation.

Volume I of KARMA was published with data through the 2019 seasons. Volume II will be available shortly following the upcoming football seasons (NFL and College), so let's go with a January/February 2022 estimate.

Volume II will provide updated data and results for all 6 sports during the last 2 seasons, minus a few scratch seasons shortened due to the virus-that-must-not-be-named.

Since past results are not perfectly predictive of future outcomes, monitoring results with each successive season will help provide information on what to expect in future years with a given set of inputs.

Lastly, Volume II will be accompanied by new features on this site for users to see upcoming picks and to see the value graphs emerging over time.

Visit the account page to add your email to our list and join our team.

If you are interested in competing with the best group of handicappers in the world, there are two great options:

Westgate Supercontest and Circa Sports Millions

Either of these tournaments are worthwhile and this is not an endorsement of one or the other but rather both. In order to join either contest, note that you must register in person (in Vegas) and use a Proxy service (which can run $150-250 for a season).

The Similarities:

• Buy-In is $1,000 for both contests now
• choosing 5 games each week (total 85 games)
• multiple intra-season payouts
• $1+ million to the season winner
• at least top 30 get great payouts
• 1 point for each win, 0.5 points for each push
• no rake (100% payback to contestants)

The Differences:

• Lines are released each Wed 5pm (W) vs. Thur 10 am (C)
• 6, 3-week intra season (W) vs. quarterly (C) payouts

KARMA competed (as 'The Actuaries') in the 2019 Westgate Supercontest.

KARMA will be competing in the Circa Sports contest this 2021 season (entry name 'KARMA'); feel free to follow our performance each week!

Links to each contest to check out:

• Circa Sports
• Westgate

After a significant amount of effort, Volume II provides new data and other updates from Volume I.

Check out our whitepaper web page to read it in full. The other tabs on this site provide more context to the concepts discussed in the whitepaper. Updates from Volume I include:

• Re-aligned some seasons for better consistency and added all seasons that started before the end of 2021
• Updated some inputs and re-checked all formulas in the numerous workfiles
• Added a web page to demonstrate how the X- and Y-factors interact with each other
• Added a web page embedding a read-only insight for each sports model showing upcoming picks in addition to season results to date and prior team betting results.
• A carousel of all the Value Graphs for each sport, season, and market

Click here or at the top of the page to read the whitepaper in full:

Opening fully in 2021, Circa Resort & Casino provides the new BEST option in Las Vegas. This does not take away from our prior recommendation of Westgate Superbook; we still believe they are great. But we must recognize that the new player is top class.

Circa offers a two-story sportsbook with balcony seating. The screens are immaculate. There are bars on both levels with exceptional restauarants abound; 8 East is our top recommendation. Rooms are excellent and beds are as comfortable as you can find. This is the best of new downtown Old Las Vegas.

The final nail in our recommendation is Circa's rooftop bar (The Legacy Club) with a partial panoramic view of the city. Be sure to visit, try their drinks, and enjoy the 60th floor air.

This ad, similar to our Westgate ad, is not paid. Both are fantastic options and both can make your Sunday - along with every other day - special.

Check out their information here:

• Circa Main Site
• Legacy Club

Our complete Microsoft Excel database contains all six sports' historical data along with a tab for each market to see how our methodology works.

Purchasing this database ($99) will provide you with historical data for all sports, markets, and seasons. The cost for each of the six sport datasets averages less than $17 per sport!

We welcome any questions or comments at karmatalktous@gmail.com!